GDP signals deepening recession

Canada's economy shrank more than expected in November as businesses across most sectors clipped back production, suggesting the recession that started in the fourth-quarter is steeper than expected.

The economy contracted 0.7 percent in the month, the biggest drop in five years, as feeble global demand forced cuts and layoffs in manufacturing, construction, wholesale and real estate industries, Statistics Canada said on Friday.

In the worst year-over-year performance since August 1991, the economy shrank 0.8 percent compared with November 2007. The Canadian dollar strengthened slightly after the data.

Economists, surprised by the swift deterioration from a 0.1 percent decline in October, now expect the fourth-quarter contraction of close to 3 percent. That compares with the Bank of Canada's latest projection of a 2.3 percent decline.

"The prognosis for fourth quarter GDP is not looking particularly good," said Charmaine Buskas, senior economics strategist for TD Securities.

"The decline in economic activity has been increasingly broad based and suggests that recession's grip on the Canadian economy is indeed, strong," she said.

Analysts in a Reuters poll had called for a 0.4 percent decline.

The Canadian data came at the same time the United States reported its economy shrank at its fastest pace in nearly 27 years in the fourth quarter. GDP plummeted at a 3.8 percent annual rate.

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Canada's banks signal credit thaw- at least for now

TORONTO (Reuters) - A decision by Canada's biggest banks to pass along all of this week's central bank interest rate cut to customers suggests its credit markets have begun to thaw even as lending in many countries remains in a deep freeze.

Within minutes of the Bank of Canada cutting its benchmark rate on Tuesday by a half percentage point to 1.00 percent, Canadian banks lowered the rates they offer to their best clients by an equal amount.

Canadian banks, which have remained profitable even as the global financial crisis has ravaged their foreign peers, were criticized in the last quarter of 2008 when they twice decided not to pass along the full rate cuts made by the Bank of Canada, a decision they justified on the grounds of tight credit markets.

That was then; this is now. The fresh willingness of banks to follow the leader in easing borrowing conditions could mark the beginning of the end of a crisis that has threatened to stifle the Canadian economy for months or even years to come.

"The fact that we saw the match from the banks with the Bank of Canada rate is probably consistent with the view that there has been a slight improvement in tone with the markets," said Craig Wright, chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada.

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Sellers asked to be realistic as market cools

The greater Toronto real estate market continued its slide in the first half of January, according to figures released today.

Total house sales were cut in half compared with the same period last year, while $35,000 was knocked off the average value of each sale, a drop of almost 10% on 2008.

Toronto Real Estate Board president Maureen O’Neill said the cooling will take some getting used to, but expects growth once potential sellers and buyers adapt to the new economic conditions.

“Consumers have had it very good for the last 10 years. They can’t remember seeing prices going down,” she said. “People need to be more realistic and respect the current market.”

GTA realtors reported 888 sales in the first two weeks of this year, down from 1,776 in 2008. The average price fell from $367,574 to $332,495.

Gilles Duranton, a professor of economics at the University of Toronto, said nobody knows when the good times will return, but greater Toronto is better placed than most markets.

“We have to remember this is a downturn that is affecting the whole continent, if not the world,” he said. “We haven’t seen the kind of explosion in price here that happened in other North American cities, so the correction won’t be as severe,” he said.

If you're looking for more information about the market, and seeking advice come out the The Dream Home System's FREE educational seminar- Are you lost in the market? On Saturday, February 7th from 11:00am to 1:00pm. Click here for more information.


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Get your FREE tickets to the National Home Show!

As a thank you to all of my clients, family members, friends and business-to-business partners, I'd like to invite you to be my V.I.P. Guest at the National Home Show taking place from February 20-March 1, 2009 at the Direct Energy Centre in the GTA.

The Dream Home System wouldn't exist without your continued support, so I'd like to take this opportunity to show you a token of my appreciation.

My V.I.P. ticket for you includes:

• Exclusive V.I.P. Entrance with complimentary coat check
• Front row seating at the "Little Project Stage presented by HGTV
• Front of the line access to the Dream Home
• Complimentary Wine Tasting in the Dream Gardens
• Chance to enter the RE/MAX Ultimate Viking Kitchen Contest ($25,000 value)

To request 2 FREE tickets to the show, click here, and fill out the form. Then I'll send you your tickets!

*Please note: Tickets are limited, and distributed on a first come, first served basis. Tickets are also exclusively for current clients, family members, friends and business-to-business partners.



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Credit card debts hurting Canadians

With job losses expected to increase throughout 2009, chances are more Canadians are going to defaults on their credit cards or loans.

A study by the Vanier Institute found that average household debt in Canada surged to more than $90,000 in 2008, while the total debt to disposable income ratio climbed to 140 per cent.

Many industry insiders are noticing that certain creditors have increased interest rates for people who have missed more than two monthly payments, which is making it harder for people to pay down their debts.

If you find that you're unable to keep up with your monthly payments be sure to contact your credit card company and let them know about your situation. They should be able to come up with a compromise that is somewhere in the middle so you both benefit.

A recent poll by Manulife Canada found that 35 per cent of Canadians who responded say their top financial priority in 2009 is paying off debts and reducing their mortgages.

About 24 per cent said that consumer debts, such as credit cards, are their greatest concern.

If you're struggling financially and considering meeting with a debt consolidation organization, be sure to review the tips on Industry Canada's website to ensure that you know what to look for. For tips on how to avoid credit card debts click here.

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FREE Educational Seminar- Are you lost in the market?

It's no secret that the global economy isn't in the greatest shape right now. From government bailouts for large corporations to falling house prices- it seems like just about everything is feeling the affects of the market.

But have no fear! The Dream Home System would like to invite you to a FREE educational seminar to learn more about the current state of the market, as well as potential opportunities that may arise in a declining market.



Seminar topics of discussion will include:

• What caused the financial crisis?
• What does the market look like here in Canada?
• What types of opportunities are there in a declining market?
• Plus much more!

The seminar will take place on Saturday, February 7th from 11:00am to 1:00pm at the RE/MAX Omega head office, located at: 1140 Stellar Drive in Newmarket, ON.


This is an open event, so please feel free to invite any friends, family or co-workers to attend.

To register for this free seminar, please contact tiffany@thedreamhomesystem.com or call (905) 898-1211.

Light refreshments and snacks will be served.



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Put your inaugural knowledge to the test!

In just a few hours President-Elect Barack Obama will be sworn in as the 44th President of the United States of America.

With so much excitement in the air surrounding this historic event, it's hard to remember past inaugurations. That's why the folks over at CNN.com have put together a fun quiz to test your inaugural knowledge. Take this quiz and put your presidential knowledge to the test!

There's still a lot of events taking place on Tuesday, January 20th, 2009 for the inauguration. To keep up-to-date with the latest events, check out www.pic2009.org

Chances are that you might be stuck at work during the inauguration ceremony. But fear not- you can always watch the events online by visiting CTV.ca.

Twenty years from now you can say that you witnessed a moment in history along with the rest of the world!



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How Realtors can help you

Maybe you're buying a home for the first time. Or maybe you're selling your old home to move up to something new. Whatever the reason, the buying and selling of a home is a big event. It's an intricate process involving many specialists. One of these specialists is a REALTOR®, whose job it is to make the transfer of property as easy as possible.

But not all licensed or registered Brokers or salespeople are REALTORS®. The term REALTOR® is a trademark identifying real estate licensees in Canada who are members of The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). REALTORS® adhere to a strict Code of Ethics and Standards of Business Practice. The code of ethics is a firm set of rules, describing what kind of performance you have a right to expect from a REALTOR®. It's your guarantee of professional conduct and the best in service.

If you want to find out how a REALTOR® can help you go to this very informative and interactive web page created by The Canadian Real Estate Association.

www.howrealtorshelp.ca

That's why many buyers and sellers turn to a REALTOR®. As a member of their local real estate Board, REALTORS® have their finger on the pulse of the housing market and are in daily contact with buyers potentially interested in your home.

You can trust a REALTOR® to protect your interests and to look after details. And all the while, you're an active partner in the process, working with a REALTOR® every step of the way. So the more you know about buying and selling homes, the better your working relationship with a REALTOR®.

A REALTOR®’s commitment to high standards of professional conduct works to the advantage of buyers and sellers alike.

A REALTOR® is knowledgeable about developments and trends in real estate. A REALTOR® will get you the facts: comparable prices, neighborhood trends, housing market conditions and more.

A REALTOR® is committed to ongoing education to increase competence and effectiveness in real estate trading.

Every REALTOR® has been trained and tested. And REALTORS® are bound by a strict Code of Ethics and Standards of Business Practice that ensure fairness to all parties in a transaction.

A REALTOR®'s pledge is to be honest in disclosing property information and forthright in providing the facts needed to help you make one of the most important decisions of your life.

And remember, only a REALTOR®, a member of The Canadian Real Estate Association, has access to the Multiple Listing Service®, Canada's most powerful real estate marketing system.

Reality kicks in!

I just thought with all the economic crisis talk that's going on I'll give you all a market update out of my perspective. I think it is very important that my clients, friends, family are aware of what is going in the real estate world.

The market is very quite right now.

One reason of course is the seasonal slow down that occurs every year around this time, sometimes it's a week or two earlier, sometimes later. It also depends on when the first real snow hits and that has been quite early this year.

The second reason that puts the market on an even slower pace is the world financial/economical situation.

Some interesting facts from our area (Northern GTA, Newmarket, etc.)

• only 18% of homes listed were sold in October
• sales are down by 38%
• in the big T.O. even down up to 0ver 40%
• house prices have declined by average 5%
• houses are taking up much longer to sell, average was around 30 days now we are approaching the 50 days mark
• check out more detailed market facts about the GTA
  

Hey, this may not encourage you if you are an active seller in the housing market but at least it tells you that you are not alone!

Here a bit about the typical seller and buyer in nowadays market:
A lot of sellers are in the same situation. They are a bit in shock that the market turned on them. Many do not understand why suddenly homes do not sell in 30 days for top Dollar anymore. Most of them, understandable, are not willing to reduce their prices to the point it would become interesting for buyers. Sellers think that their home is worth more. Well, that is only true if somebody is willing to pay that money. A home is worth as much as an informed buyer is willing to pay under current market conditions. Unfortunately right now buyers are not willing to pay top Dollar. The opposite is the case. A lot of buyer who would like to purchase a home are sitting on the fence. It's also understandable why. They are thinking home prices are declining further and I might get a better deal down the road. They also have the choice of a lot more homes out there. Inventory levels are high and buyers are not in the same situation like a year ago where they had to take action and make an offer on a home before it was sold to somebody. Also multiple offer situations have become very rare. Buyer can take their time now and do not need to compete. Buyers now try to lowball offers because they have nothing to loose. They think that they might get a better deal anyways in a couple of months .... and who knows, perhaps they are right? Sellers right now are fighting to accept the fact that the market is not necessarily acting in their favour anymore like the last 7 years. I totally understand that as nobody wants to loose money out of their pockets but the market can’t go in one direction forever. It’s a natural cycle. We can still be happy that we are in such a strong market here in CANADA. You all have probably heard enough about the horror in the US. In the US it has hit a lot of sellers/homeownwers very hard. Homes lost from 10% to 50% of their value, depending on location of course (not everywhere in the states). Banks are foreclosing on properties like crazy and Realtors are dropping out of business like dead flies. I assume that the slow market continues right into the second quarter of 09 and prices will keep declining slightly until the third/fourth quarter of 2009. I honestly do not expect an upwards trend until the end of next year. All market indicators are pointing that way. Also economists and analysts are predicting somewhat the same ... but who are they, right?

If somebody could really forecast the market that would be magic!

So thinking about the challenges that the US housing industry is facing we don’t have it as bad ... but reality kicks in these days just looking at the market figures. We have to accept that we are not invulnerable and that the ripple effects of the US credit crunch and the US housing market collapse has finally reached even "The True North Strong And Free!"

So let's deal with it, have a positive attitude and do the best we can do individually to get into more positive economic terrain again in the future.

TD scales back house-price decline

Canadian housing prices have not fallen nearly as steeply as conventional measures indicate, Toronto-Dominion Bank said Thursday.

According to a new TD Home Price Index, which the bank unveiled Thursday, average major market home prices in October were down just 4.6 per cent from a year earlier, rather than the 10.9 per cent cited in a news release Nov. 14 by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). The difference stems from the fact that while CREA has traditionally weighted its average price figure based on relative sales volumes, TD is weighting it based on the outstanding stock of homes in a given region. The bank acknowledged, however, that CREA recently began using a "more accurate stock-weighted method."

In fact, in its Nov. 14 news release, the association also said that using a stock-based calculation, the weighted national average price "eased by 5 per cent" in October, year-over-year. However, this number appears to have received little media attention.

Bob Linney, a spokesman for the Ottawa-based association, said CREA chief economist Gregory Klump developed the methodology and has been using it for two months.

The difficulty with the more traditional sales-weighted approach is that it measures the average price for existing-house transactions in a given month and market, regardless of unit type, quality or size, TD said in a report to clients Thursday.

"In normal times, these regional sales-weighted price measures are reliable," TD economists Pascal Gauthier and Grant Bishop said in the report. "However, the same cannot be said when markets are at a turning point and sales fluctuate significantly. Such is the case in Canada at the moment."

The economists cited the British Columbia market, where sales were down by 40 per cent as at Oct. 8. "Since average prices in [B.C.] are the highest in the nation, the drop in sales tends to overstate the extent of price declines when applied to a simple national average," they said.

Indexes that are weighted on the basis of the stock of housing in a given region, such as the S&P/Case-Shiller Housing Price Index in the United States offer a "better apples-to-apples comparison over time" because they focus on houses that have sold more than once," the TD economists said.

CREA's Mr. Linney agreed. "It's like seasonally adjusting, it eliminates the highs and the lows," he said in a telephone interview. "We had one month where the average price [in Halifax] almost doubled, but it was because they sold three $1-million houses, which doesn't normally happen."

TD released its report the same day as Bank of Nova Scotia joined a growing crowd of observers in declaring that Canada's longest housing boom since the end of the Second World War has ended.

However, there is little or no danger that Canada will experience the sort of market collapse and tidal wave of foreclosures occurring south of the border, Scotiabank senior economist and real estate specialist Adrienne Warren said in a report.

"This is not a U.S.-style bust caused by overbuilding, speculative buying and imprudent lending, but rather a cyclical slowdown accompanied by a valuation adjustment in several large centres where booming demand conditions and temporary supply constraints led to an overshooting in prices," she said.

The reversal of fortune has been most pronounced in what have been Canada's hottest markets of late, it added - the Western provinces and, in particular, Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver.

The flip side, however, is that in virtually all regions of the country, "conditions ... are tilting back in favour of buyers for the first time in years," the bank said.

The Scotiabank report comes a week after CREA disclosed that, in October, the national average price of a resale home fell by 10 per cent from a year earlier to $281,133, the fifth consecutive monthly decline and the largest in percentage terms since August, 1982. As well, unit sales were down a full 27 per cent from a year earlier.

Earlier this week, meanwhile, a survey by the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals found that 35 per cent of Canadians now expect housing prices to continue falling, up from 15 per cent last spring.

Scotiabank is, in fact, a little late to the party. Economists at Bank of Montreal, for example, declared as early as last March that Canada's housing boom was dead.

As of August, U.S. housing prices were down 20 per cent from their peak in July 2006, Ms. Warren said in a telephone interview, and given there is so much unsold inventory, "we see further declines of maybe 25 per cent plus."

By contrast, she figures that the correction in national average housing prices in Canada will probably be in the range of 10 per cent to 15 per cent, "well below the ongoing U.S. retrenchment."

As evidence of why the Canadian housing market is not at risk of the same sort of bust occurring in the United States, Ms. Warren cited the fact that Canada's inventory of unsold new and resale homes is still "well contained compared with prior cycles," even though it is moving up.

For another, there is a low risk of widespread foreclosures and, combined with the fact that builders are generally starting to slow the pace of new construction, this means Canada does not have to cope with the "massive inventory glut underlying record-setting U.S. price declines."

Canada's situation compares favourably with that of several other nations, according to the Scotiabank report.

Measured by a valuation model developed by the International Monetary Fund, Canada's housing market is "least overvalued," while Ireland's and Britain's are the most overvalued, the report said, followed by Australia, France and Spain.

"U.S. house prices are estimated to be only moderately overvalued following the recent price declines," it said.